Bangladesh’s Political Landscape: An Overview of the Upcoming 2024 General Election

4 min readDec 4, 2023

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## Introduction

As Bangladesh gears up for its upcoming general elections scheduled for January 7, 2024, the political landscape of the country is simmering with tension and unrest. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government and the establishment of a neutral caretaker government to oversee the election process. On the other hand, the ruling Awami League (AL) is determined to hold the elections under its current administration. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the political situation in Bangladesh, highlighting the key players, events, and challenges leading up to the 2024 general elections.

Historical Context: From Democracy to Autocracy

Bangladesh’s political journey has been tumultuous, marked by periods of democracy and autocracy. Sheikh Hasina, the current Prime Minister, came to power in 2009 after an election held under a caretaker government backed by the military. However, subsequent elections in 2014 and 2018 were marred by allegations of irregularities and lack of transparency. The ruling Awami League gradually consolidated its control over the administration, leading to the erosion of democratic institutions and the stifling of freedom of expression. The Digital Security Act of 2018 further curtailed civil liberties, cementing Bangladesh’s slide toward becoming an elected autocracy.

The Opposition’s Demands and Government Crackdown

The opposition parties, primarily led by the BNP, have long been demanding a neutral caretaker government to ensure free and fair elections. However, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has vehemently rejected this demand, citing the country’s previous experience with a caretaker government that assumed military control and arrested political leaders. Since the BNP’s grand rally on October 28, 2023, the government has unleashed a wave of repression against the opposition. Thousands of opposition activists have been arrested, including top BNP leaders, and charged with various offenses. The BNP’s headquarters has been sealed by the police, further intensifying the political tensions.

Escalating Violence and Street Protests

The aftermath of the BNP’s rally has witnessed a surge in violence and street protests across Bangladesh. Both the ruling Awami League and the opposition parties have accused each other of instigating violence. The police have been accused of using excessive force, with reports of injuries and deaths during clashes between protesters and law enforcement agencies. The opposition has called for strikes and blockades, leading to disruptions in transportation and commerce. Arson attacks on buses and other public property have been reported, further exacerbating the volatile situation.

International Response and Concerns

The political turmoil in Bangladesh has drawn attention from the international community, with several countries expressing concerns about the deteriorating democratic situation. The United States, in particular, has imposed targeted sanctions on the country’s elite force, Rapid Action Battalion, and has called for free and fair elections. The European Union has decided not to deploy a full election observer team, citing the absence of necessary conditions for a transparent electoral process. Human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have condemned the government’s actions and raised concerns about the arrests of opposition activists.

Scenarios for the 2024 General Elections

Bangladesh’s political landscape is at a critical juncture, with two possible scenarios for the upcoming general elections. In the first scenario, the government maintains its stronghold, and a unilateral election takes place. This could involve the ruling party exhausting the opposition, flipping high-profile leaders to join pro-government parties, or rendering the BNP leaderless. In the second scenario, the opposition gains the upper hand, and a negotiated inclusive election is held. This could be achieved through popular mobilization, external pressure, or economic crises prompting mass protests.

International Role and Implications

The international community, particularly the United States, holds a pivotal role in ensuring a democratic and transparent election in Bangladesh. The US has already taken measures such as imposing targeted sanctions on human rights violators. The imposition of further sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and active mediation could influence the course of events in Bangladesh. The implications of the 2024 elections are significant, as they will determine the country’s commitment to democratic principles and its future trajectory as either a closed autocracy or a thriving democracy.

Conclusion

As Bangladesh approaches the 2024 general elections, the country finds itself at a tipping point. The political landscape is marred by violence, repression, and a polarized atmosphere. The ruling Awami League and the opposition BNP remain locked in a power struggle, with no immediate resolution in sight. The international community, particularly the United States, has a crucial role to play in supporting democratic processes and ensuring a level playing field for all parties. The outcome of the upcoming elections will shape Bangladesh’s political future and determine its standing in the international community.